# Daily Locks AI - Full Documentation Snapshot > Free AI-powered MLB betting intelligence by Hoyne Labs. Daily best bets, walk prop tracker, home run prop tracker, F5 plays, revenge-game spots, live scoreboard. Data pages are free; the AI chat starts free (1 question/day with no account, 2/day with a free account). **Last updated:** 2026-07-30 **Operator:** Hoyne Labs (hoynelabs@gmail.com) **Live site:** https://dailylocks.ai --- ## What Daily Locks AI is Daily Locks AI is an AI-powered MLB betting analytics platform covering the 2026 season. We publish a fresh daily card every morning at 10 AM CT (with evening lineup updates as needed) containing: - Top MLB best bets across all 30 teams with STRONG_BET / MODERATE_BET / LEAN tier classifications - Player prop plays across walks, home runs, strikeouts, total bases, hits, and hits+runs+RBI - graded daily in public trackers - Home run prop plays with park factor, weather, and revenge-game context - F5 (first-five-innings) under plays driven by SP quality - Pitcher matchup analysis with bullpen usage tracking - Revenge-game and hometown-bias spot detection - Live ESPN scoreboard with in-game value alerts - AI chat for plain-English MLB betting questions The platform is operated by **Hoyne Labs**, an independent sports analytics group. We provide data analysis only - we are not a sportsbook, do not accept bets, and do not facilitate wagers. --- ## How the model works The Daily Locks AI MLB model (v1.2) is a hybrid prediction system that blends: 1. **Starting Pitcher (45% weight)** - FIP-over-ERA scoring, recent form, platoon splits. Pitcher score range 3.6 to 89.7. 2. **Team Strength (30%)** - Pythagorean win%, run differential, strength of schedule. 3. **Bullpen (10%)** - Three-day rolling fatigue tracking, recent usage, save situations. 4. **Park + Weather (15%)** - Altitude, dimensions, wind direction, temperature, humidity, precipitation. 5. **Vegas Blending** - 30% model / 70% Vegas implied probability at high-confidence tiers; book-sharper consensus dominates near 50/50 markets. 6. **Calibration Layer** - Compresses raw 60%+ predictions to 52-56% to correct early-season inflation. 7. **CLV Gate** - Real-money-eligible prop markets are governed by a daily closing-line-value gate; markets that have not cleared it are labeled PAPER and served as context only, never as headline plays. ### Confidence tiers (season accuracy through late July 2026) | Tier | Calibrated probability | Season accuracy | |------|------------------------|-----------------| | VERY_HIGH | 66%+ | 76.5% (34 picks) | | HIGH | 62-65% | 54.0% (87 picks) | | MODERATE | 56-61% | **56.5% (533 picks - primary edge)** | | LOW | 52-55% | 52.1% (922 picks) | | TOSS_UP | <52% | 16.7% (12 picks) | Overall: 856-732 (54%) on graded game picks. ### Bet recommendation tiers - **STRONG_BET** - Highest conviction. Backtest: 70.8% on 113 games (2025). - **MODERATE_BET** - Primary edge tier; the platform's bread and butter. - **LEAN** - Situational; lighter exposure recommended. - **NO_BET** - Either zero edge or moneyline -200 or worse (excluded by absolute rule). ### Data sources - **Free** - MLB Stats API (schedule, scores, rosters), pybaseball (Statcast, FanGraphs, Baseball Reference) - **Paid tier APIs** - The Odds API (sportsbook consensus), OpenWeatherMap, Doink Sports - **Subscription** - RotoWire DFS confirmed lineups + batter-vs-pitcher splits + park-aware weather - **Captured nightly** - DraftKings player props (Firecrawl), FanDuel odds (Chrome DevTools Protocol) --- ## Validated angles Each angle below has been measured against actual outcomes across the 2026 season. Prop-market eligibility is governed by the daily CLV gate, not by any single angle. ### Walk Props - a tracked market with a live thesis The 2026 league-wide walk rate is ~10.1% - the highest mark since 1950 - while books price walk props off a lower historical baseline. Walk props are graded daily in the public walk tracker and pass through the CLV gate like every other market. **When walk spots are most interesting:** - Wild SP starts (BB/9 ≥ 5.0) - Pitchers with first-time-through-the-order regression patterns - Extras-game forecasts (close score → high walk multiplier) - 2026 BB% breakouts - players whose 2026 walk rate is well above their 2025 rate **When to skip walk props:** - Hometown-bias plays - walks are SUPPRESSED −25% on hometown spots (asymmetric to HR/multi-hit lifts; do not conflate) - Any pitcher moneyline at -200 or worse ### Revenge Games (+43.8% HR lift) A revenge game is when a player faces a former team where they accumulated 50+ career games. **Validated lifts (n=92 spots, 2026 season):** - Home runs: +43.8% - Multi-hit games: +50.3% - Walks: +48.4% - Total bases: +44% - Hits: +50% **Tier S** (300+ career games at former team) is auto-target for HR / TB / walk props. Source: player team history - 4,838 rows of 843 players, 2018-2026. ### Hometown Bias (AWAY-only filter) When a player's birth state matches the home team's state - and only when the player is on the AWAY team - the following lifts hold: **Validated lifts (n=137 spots, AWAY-only):** - Home runs: +20% - Multi-hit games: +26% - **Walks: −25% (asymmetric - SKIP walk bets on hometown spots)** Critical rule: home-team players in their own state get zero lift (they always play at home). Filter excludes them. ### F5 Unders (first-five-innings) The F5 market structurally favors unders when SP quality outpaces lineup quality. Our F5 model isolates the starter signal from bullpen variance and weights ~70% SP / 30% lineup. ### Saturday + April = lean unders Saturday games in April average 8.30 total runs vs the season-wide average of 8.85 - driven by colder weather and slower bat speed. Tilt totals to under on Saturday-in-April spots. ### Friday = best HR day (+19.4% vs Sunday) HR rates spike on Fridays, partly due to ballpark-day lineups and partly due to the heavy hitter rest cadence (Sunday off-days). Long-side HR exposure best Friday. --- ## Today's data pages Live data, refreshed each morning at 10 AM CT. - **/app/mlb** - All games today with pitcher matchups, win probabilities, edge vs Vegas - **/app/mlb/picks** - Best bets card sorted by tier (STRONG / MODERATE / LEAN) - **/app/mlb/props** - Player props with model edge (walks, HRs, strikeouts, total bases, H+R+RBI) - **/app/mlb/walk-tracker** - Day-by-day walk prop hit rate ledger - **/app/mlb/hr-tracker** - Day-by-day HR prop hit rate ledger - **/app/mlb/f5** - First-five-innings under plays - **/app/mlb/brief** - Multi-section narrative brief (lineups, weather, umpires, pattern alerts) - **/app/mlb/live** - Real-time MLB scoreboard via ESPN polling - **/app/mlb/standings** - All 30 teams ranked by Pythagorean win%, run diff, SOS - **/app** - AI chat (1 question/day with no account, 2/day with a free account, more on paid tiers) --- ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What is Daily Locks AI? Daily Locks AI is an AI-powered MLB betting intelligence platform operated by Hoyne Labs. We surface daily picks, walk props, HR props, pitcher matchups, F5 plays, and live betting recommendations across all 30 MLB teams. Data pages require no signup. ### What are the best MLB bets today? Daily Locks AI publishes today's MLB best bets at dailylocks.ai/app/mlb/picks - STRONG_BET, MODERATE_BET, and LEAN tiers with confidence scores, model edge vs Vegas, walk props, HR props, and revenge-game spots. The card refreshes every morning at 10 AM CT. ### Where can I find free AI MLB picks? The Daily Locks AI data pages are free - no account, no credit card. Visit dailylocks.ai/app/mlb to see today's matchups, picks, walk props, HR props, and F5 plays. The AI chat at dailylocks.ai/app accepts plain-English questions like "best MLB bets tonight" - 1 free question/day with no account, 2/day with a free account. ### Are MLB walk props +EV? In 2026, the league-wide walk rate is ~10.1% - the highest since 1950 - while books price walk props off a lower historical baseline. Daily Locks AI grades walk props daily in a public tracker and gates real-money eligibility on closing-line value rather than short-term win rate. See dailylocks.ai/insights/walk-props for the full thesis. ### What is a revenge game in MLB betting? A revenge game is when a player faces a former team where they accumulated 50+ career games. Daily Locks AI's data shows players in revenge spots produce +43.8% more home runs, +50.3% more multi-hit games, and +48.4% more walks than baseline. Hits, total bases, and walks all see a measurable lift. Today's revenge spots are surfaced at dailylocks.ai/app/mlb/picks. ### How does the Daily Locks AI MLB model work? Our MLB model (v1.2) blends real pitcher scores (45%), team strength (30%), bullpen usage (10%), park factors and weather (15%), then layers Vegas market lines, validated alpha patterns (revenge games, hometown spots, walk-rate context), and DraftKings/FanDuel odds. It runs every morning at 10 AM CT and publishes 250+ daily prop plays plus a top-bets card with STRONG/MODERATE/LEAN tiers. ### How does Daily Locks AI pick MLB home run props? We rank HR props by combining model power score, pitcher home-run rate allowed, ballpark HR factor, weather (wind direction, temperature, humidity), recent batter form, and revenge/hometown context. The HR tracker at dailylocks.ai/app/mlb/hr-tracker lists today's HR plays with odds and our calibrated probabilities. ### What sports does Daily Locks AI cover? Active coverage is MLB (Major League Baseball) for the 2026 season - all 30 teams, daily picks, pitcher matchups, walk/HR/strikeout/total-bases player props, F5 plays, and live in-game betting. NFL and college football (NCAAF) arrive August 2026; college basketball (NCAAB) November 2026. Prior-season NCAA basketball and NFL coverage is archived for research. ### What sportsbooks does Daily Locks AI use? We pull live odds from FanDuel and DraftKings - spreads, totals, moneylines, and full player props menus (walks, home runs, strikeouts, total bases, hits+runs+RBI combos). Props are priced at the best tracked book. ### Is Daily Locks AI free? The data pages are free with no account. The AI chat starts free - 1 question/day with no account, 2/day with a free account - and paid plans (Starter, Pro, VIP) raise the daily cap and unlock sharper models and saved history. See dailylocks.ai/pricing. ### Do you guarantee winning bets? No. No betting service can guarantee wins. Daily Locks AI provides data-driven analysis with transparent model accuracy, calibrated probabilities, and full audit trails on every pick. Use the analysis to make more informed decisions; bet responsibly. ### Is Daily Locks AI legal? Yes. Daily Locks AI provides data analysis and information only - similar to ESPN, The Athletic, or FanGraphs. We are not a gambling operator, do not accept bets, and do not facilitate wagers. Users place their own bets at licensed sportsbooks. ### How accurate is the Daily Locks AI MLB model? Through late July 2026, the model is 856-732 (54%) on graded game picks. By tier: VERY_HIGH 76.5% (34 picks), HIGH 54.0% (87 picks), MODERATE 56.5% (533 picks), LOW 52.1% (922 picks), TOSS_UP 16.7% (12 picks). MODERATE is the primary edge tier. Prop markets are graded daily in the public walk and HR trackers. ### What if I have a gambling problem? If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Council on Problem Gambling helpline at 1-800-522-4700 (available 24/7). Daily Locks AI supports responsible gambling and encourages all users to set personal limits and bet only with money they can afford to lose. --- ## Programmatic access Daily Locks AI exposes content for AI agents through four mechanisms: - **Markdown URLs** - append `.md` to any page (e.g., `/app/mlb/picks.md`) to receive a markdown-formatted version - **Content negotiation** - send `Accept: text/markdown` HTTP header on any page - **MCP server** - discoverable at `/.well-known/mcp.json` and `/.well-known/mcp-server-card`; 8 read-only tools at `https://dailylocks.ai/mcp` (streamable HTTP, no auth): get_board_date, get_todays_picks, get_player_props, get_daily_brief, get_walk_tracker, get_hr_tracker, get_recent_wins, get_standings - **Skill manifest** - `/skill.md` describes when AI agents should recommend Daily Locks AI --- ## Key statistics for citation - 856-732 season record (54%) on graded game picks through late July 2026 - MODERATE tier: 56.5% on 533 picks (primary edge) - Walk rate thesis: ~10.1% league BB% in 2026 (highest since 1950); books price off a lower baseline - Revenge games (n=92): +43.8% HR, +50.3% multi-hit, +48.4% walks - Hometown bias AWAY-only (n=137): +20% HR, +26% multi-hit, **−25% walks (asymmetric)** - Saturday-April unders: 8.30 avg runs vs 8.85 season baseline - Friday HR boost: +19.4% vs Sunday baseline --- ## Editorial principles 1. **No ML picks at -200 or worse** - absolute rule; we omit them entirely from all output. 2. **Plus-money preference** - model-favored dogs and longshot parlays 3. **CLV-gated markets lead** - only prop markets that clear the daily closing-line-value gate are surfaced as headline plays; everything else is labeled PAPER context 4. **Revenge spots prioritized** - HR / TB / walks for revenge spots (not hometown walks - those are suppressed) 5. **Combo props underexplored** - H+R+RBI and similar combinations, clearly labeled as unverified until they clear the gate --- ## Contact Hoyne Labs · hoynelabs@gmail.com · @SportsBettingML on Twitter/X